
A | 上海8月23日电 (记者 陈静)记者23日获悉,在22日举行的2026中国首席经济学家复旦管院科创论坛上,中国经济“K型”分化话题引发专家的关注。 LOS ANGELES -- At the most harrowing of times, some Israeli citizens living overseas aren't running from the war at home, but to it. From Athens to New York, they're rushing to airports and diving into online chat groups for help, desperate to make their way to the country after Hamas militants attacked. Some of these Israelis abroad are yearning to serve, whether that means fighting in a military reserve unit or volunteering to shuttle supplies to those in need, even as the war has already claimed at least 1,800 lives and shows no signs of abating. On Tuesday, Israel's military expanded its mobilization of reservists to 360,000, according to the country’s media, as it ramped up its retaliation for the surprise attacks. Yaakov Swisa, a 42-year-old father of five, said nobody called and asked him to return to Israel to fight, but he feels he has no choice. He served for 15 years, and he said he learned his army roommate was among at least 260 killed at a music festival. Swisa wants to rejoin his reserve unit, even if that means leaving his family and his construction-business job in Los Angeles. “I’ve been crying for two, three days. Enough. That’s it. I am ready to fight," he said. “What else would I do ... while my friends are being buried in Israel?”Some of the Israelis living, working or just traveling abroad who were trying to make it back said their reserve units were among those called up. Others said they hadn't yet been called or couldn't reach their commanders but expected to be asked soon. In other cases, Israelis who are too young to serve in the military, as well as non-Israelis with close ties to the country, have been trying to travel to assist family members or volunteer.Adam Jacobs, an 18-year-old community college student in New Jersey, said he was born and raised in the U.S. and for years traveled every summer to visit family in Israel. He said he learned his cousin was among those killed, and he wants to make his way to Israel to take on volunteer work, possibly shuttling supplies.“I couldn’t live with myself if I stayed here,” Jacobs said. “It’s never been this bad.”Eric Fingerhut, a former U.S. congressman who now leads The Jewish Federations of North America, said he’s not surprised by how many people want to help.“As soon as we can possibly enable that, we certainly will,” he said from Tel Aviv, where he'd arrived just before the weekend attacks. “There are many Israeli reservists who are abroad. And so getting them back home to join the fight, you know, has been a priority. And it should be a priority. So people are just scrambling.”The war began after Hamas militants stormed into Israel Saturday during a major Jewish holiday, killing people and abducting others. In response, Israeli warplanes have hammered the Gaza Strip, destroying buildings and sending Palestinian residents scrambling to find safety in the tiny, sealed-off territory. Travel has been challenging, with major airlines suspending flights in and out of Israel. The U.S. State Department issued travel advisories for the region. Some reservists in the United States, home to more than 140,000 people born in Israel, were trying to get on charter flights.Ofer Cohen, a New York businessman, said he learned there were more than 200 reservists traveling through South America on vacation at the time of the attacks. They've been called back to base but unable to get there, thanks to canceled flights. So Cohen is trying to cobble together hundreds of thousands of dollars to hire a plane to pick them up, as WhatsApp messages describing their troubles keep rolling in. “I just saw one after another,” he said, “and I thought about this idea of getting a charter plane and get them back to Israel.”In Greece, hundreds of people waited hours to board emergency flights at Athens International Airport, many without a ticket and most traveling from other European destinations after cutting holiday and work trips short. As officers patrolled the area to provide security, volunteers handed travelers apples, bananas and bottled water. Nir Ekhouse, a 19-year old from near Nazareth, had been in the Maldives with family. They reached Athens via Istanbul as they tried to make it home. Once there, Ekhouse said, he plans to volunteer for an organization that supports the military.“This is the first time in the history of Israel that something like that has happened. It’s very shocking,” he said, standing in line with his parents and younger siblings.Israel Lawrence, 27, was born in Israel and grew up in London. He said that although he hasn't been formally called up, he's making the trip to join his fellow soldiers, many already on the front lines, and help his family members, who are living in terror and chaos.“I want to be honest with you, I’m scared," said Lawrence, a trained rifleman who was on his way to Israel via Cyprus. "All the guys I’m with are terrified, but we are trained, and we’ll do the best we can.” __Hadjicostis reported from Nicosia, Cyprus. Taxin reported from Santa Ana, California. Also contributing were: AP reporters Bobby Caina Calvan in New York, Lefteris Pitarakis and Derek Gatopoulos in Athens, John Leicester in Paris and Nicole Winfield and Patricia Thomas in Rome.。

B | 中国首席经济学家论坛副理事长殷剑峰表示,当前经济与产业结构正呈现显著的“K型”分化特征。排名前二十的高景气行业主要由产业升级与全球化出海驱动,集中在有色金属、电子产业链、家用电器及电力设备等领域;而排名后二十的行业则较多面临内需收缩或周期底部的压力,尤其是房地产链及相关传统制造业。 在殷剑峰看来,AI技术是推动这一分化的关键变量,在加速高端增长的同时也加剧了传统行业的转型阵痛。他认为,下半年财政政策力度将加大,货币政策以结构性工具为主,全年经济有望呈V型走势并摆脱通缩。 “当前中国经济正在经历新旧经济结构性跨越,GDP、投资、出口、就业权重全面重构。”中国首席经济学家论坛成员张瑜指出,经济转型伴随显著K型分化难题,也是转型过程中的“幸福的烦恼”。

C | 应对转型挑战既要推动产业升级、参与全球竞争获取超额利润,也要强化二次分配体系建设,依托公共服务均等化等举措对冲分化,保障经济转型平稳推进。 中国首席经济学家论坛副理事长洪灏指出,中国经济呈现K型转型格局,房地产持续调整,但市场流动性正向新能源、半导体等硬科技产业转移。

D | 此外,人民币具备长期升值空间,伴随经济市场化推进与结构优化,国内股市底部持续抬升,长期创新高将是大概率趋势。 据了解,在2026中国首席经济学家复旦管院科创论坛上,学者、企业家等从宏观大势、产业实战、资本定价三大维度,深度解码中国经济转型逻辑,探寻科创产业高质量发展的全新路径。

E | 中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、国际金融研究院院长、复旦大学管理学院特聘教授连平认为,经济国际化是长期客观规律,中国外贸已经实现向高附加值分工体系跃迁,出口展现较强韧性。企业不能因短期压力停滞国际化布局,应当保持理性审慎,充分研判目标市场,合理把控出海节奏,稳妥推进海外布局,服务中国经济长远发展。 中国首席经济学家论坛理事董忠云表示,应对全球变局,中国的关键在于深化“十五五”规划,以扩大内需、强化科技自主与稳定开放为战略支点,把握发展主动权。

F | 复旦大学管理学院院长、李达三讲席教授张付强指出,人工智能正在改变技术路径和商业逻辑,这是一次生产函数层面的变革。中国制造正在向更高附加值迈进,资本市场正在重新理解企业价值。 复旦大学管理学院科创管理研究中心首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛副理事长邵宇指出,依托新质生产力发展逻辑,国内涵盖人工智能、商业航天、低空经济等诸多赛道将迎来长期投资机遇。他提示,当前AI、半导体板块波动仅为阶段性调整,建议践行“左手黄金、右手科技”的哑铃型配置策略,黄金对冲风险,科技捕捉产业红利。

G | “面对AI变革带来的颠覆性挑战,管理学理论也需要全面迭代升级。”复旦大学管理学院党委书记、科创管理研究中心主任陆雄文教授认为,AI技术的飞速发展正在颠覆传统经济学与管理学底层逻辑。

H | AI作为新型产业基础设施,打破了很多经典经济学假设。同时,智能体的普及弱化了传统专业分工价值,重构企业边界与市场估值逻辑,对现有经管学科体系和企业经营范式形成全面冲击。他希望以更多与时俱进的全新研究,去解答当代经济组织模式、企业边界定义等核心命题,重构适配AI时代的管理理论体系。
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